Risks and the Stock Markets - Part 7 of 7

As I come to the end of this series, my last food for thought – If one can survive with the risk of driving a car, one can very well survive the stock markets.

• Investing in the stock market / stock is very much like buying a car
o Identify your budget
o Do your research before you buy the stock
o Compare it with its peers
o Read reviews of the stock
o Look at historic performance of the stock
o Set your return targets of the stock and time period

• Investing in the stock market / stock is very much like driving your car
o Know your limits of the return on investment from your stock
o Don’t be ‘hands-off’ your portfolio
o One will not get good portfolio managers (just like you’ll not get good drivers)
o Be wary of what others are doing in the market not necessarily follow the herd
o Be cautious of the big vehicles (FIIs) who are also invested in your stock
o Maintain the course and speed; overspeeding (taking too many risks) is sign of desperation
o Bigger the car, higher is the confidence while driving (not applicable to auto drivers)

• Investing in the stock market / stock is very much like maintaining your car
o Review your stock’s performance regularly
o Check your portfolio with a financial advisor (not necessarily me :-)!)
o Sell your stock (just the way you would sell your car) when it reaches its end of fair value

Global Events, Global Markets, Global Euphoria!!

Last time I wrote the below article (barely a month ago!!), it looked like the financial markets were preparing for the worst melt-down in the Financial Markets.

As on Friday, stock markets have given fantastic returns over the 3 week period since September 22, 2011.

Brazil and Indian stock markets have returned 7.2% and 5.2% respectively in the last one week alone.

As in my previous article, even today no one has the ‘probable solution’. So why the elation in asset classes?
Case in point is though EU has cleared a Euro 400 Billion Fund, the total debt in the EU is 6,500 Billion. The EFSF is 6.15% of the total debt of the EU.

The important point to note is that stock markets have very short term memory. No news lasts forever. So don’t try to time to ‘bottom fish’ for good stocks.

Risks and the Stock Markets - Part 6 of 7

Here are the strategies for the various options you identify yourself with:
• Max profit of Rs. 10/- and max loss of Rs. 10/-
o Invest in an index linked mutual fund or an index ETF which gives you 10% returns and inflation reduces your value by 10%
o Net effect money’s value has neither increased nor reduced
o Disadvantage – you’ll never be able to keep pace with the loss in value of money

• Max profit of Rs. 20/- and max loss of Rs. 10/-
o Equity mutual funds (over 3 – 5 year periods) will give a return of 20% pa and inflation will reduce your money value by 10% pa
o This is a FAR BETTER option than PPF, FDs and endowment or money back insurance policies

• Max profit of Rs. 50/- and max loss of Rs. 50/-
o Large market cap stocks which are less impacted by macro and micro economic factors (E.g. FMCG stocks like ITC, HUL – we’ll not stop using toothpaste even if the dollar crashes, petrol becomes unaffordable )
o One needs to have some investment in these companies

• Max profit of Rs. 100/- and max loss of Rs. 100/-
o Penny stock, small market cap stocks (they rise, crash and most of the times vanish!!)
o Don’t get into these stocks
o People with very HIGH risk appetite should try

• Max profit of Rs. 200/- and max loss of Rs. 100/-
o Multi baggers like Hero Honda, Infosys and AirTel [I bought AirTel in 2002 @ Rs. 16, today the price is Rs. 744/- (price adjusted for stock split)]
o Current market provides many a opportunities of companies which will be “Blue Chip’ firms of tomorrow.

The next important rule is to split your Rs. 100 / Rs. 1,00,000/- in a mix and match of the above options. This is called portfolio diversification.

All options linked to the market should be looked as investments for atleast a 3+ year horizon.

Risks and the Stock Markets - Part 5 of 7

Continuing from my previous part of  the current series.

Now, if one invested Rs. 1,00,000/- and there was an opportunity to generate a profit or loss scenario as below, which one would you chose:
o Option A - Max profit of Rs. 10,000/- and max loss of Rs. 10,000/-
o Option B - Max profit of Rs. 20,000/- and max loss of Rs. 10,000/-
o Option C - Max profit of Rs. 50,000/- and max loss of Rs. 50,000/-
o Option D - Max profit of Rs. 1,00,000/- and max loss of Rs. 1,00,000/-
o Option E - Max profit of Rs. 2,00,000/- and max loss of Rs. 1,00,000/-

How many of you would change your choices compared to the previous illustration?

The question to all who changed their choices – the percentage gain or percentage loss was the same in both the illustrations, then why have different choices?

The reason for the change in choice is called ‘behavioral accounting’. For most of us, Rs. 100/- is an amount we are fine to run a risk of 100% loss. If one can get over this problem of mental accounting and based on your risk profile, you CAN INVEST in options linked to the stock market.

Risks and the Stock Markets - Part 4 of 7

Over the last 3 parts, I have touched upon the following:
• Perception of ‘Risk’ as the measure of ‘gain’
• Money can never be completely safe – its ‘purchasing power’ diminishes
• Zero ‘Risk’ is Zero ‘Gain’
• Governments don’t have the mandate to keep your money ‘safe’ and keep it ‘growing’
• Saving is not investing

Let’s now identify the degree of risk aversion one is comfortable with:
If one had Rs. 100/- and there was an opportunity to generate a profit or loss scenario as below, which one would you chose:
o Option A - Max profit of Rs. 10/- and max loss of Rs. 10/-
o Option B - Max profit of Rs. 20/- and max loss of Rs. 10/-
o Option C - Max profit of Rs. 50/- and max loss of Rs. 50/-
o Option D - Max profit of Rs. 100/- and max loss of Rs. 100/-
o Option E - Max profit of Rs. 200/- and max loss of Rs. 100/-

In the above illustration, inflation is considered as money value destroyer. Hence, profit and loss scenario can occur at the same time.